A very serious attack happened in Iran, the most deadly since 1979. It caused a lot of damage, with at least 84 people killed and 284 injured in the city of Kerman. The attack took place near the burial site of a military commander named Qasem Soleimani. People in Iran are very upset and want revenge.
We don’t know who is responsible for the attack. There are worries that the conflict between Israel and Gaza might affect other places in the Middle East, bringing in other powerful countries like the United States. Here is what we know about the situation in Kerman:
Iranian Officials Statement:
A bomb in a suitcase caused the first explosion in a car, and it seemed to be triggered from a distance, according to Iranian state television. The second, more harmful blast occurred 20 minutes later when people rushed to help those injured.
No group has claimed responsibility, but Iranian officials are blaming Israel and warning of consequences. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated in a televised speech that Israel will face a heavy price for the crime and others it has committed. The Israeli military did not comment on the explosions, and the U.S. denied involvement.
Tensions between Iran and Israel are high due to their longstanding enmity. Iran supports groups opposed to Israel, while Israel aims to prevent Iran from generating nuclear weapons and is accused by Iran of disrupting its nuclear program.
The U.S. State Department emphasized that it was not involved in the attacks and had no independent information about them. It stated there was no reason to believe Israel was involved.
Who is behind the attacks on Iran?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has several opponents, including Israel, Iranian opposition groups, separatist movements within and outside the country, and ISIS.
Separatist movements are active in the Sistan-Baluchestan province (bordering Pakistan) and the Ahvaz province (bordering Iraq), with alleged involvement in recent terrorist attacks in Iran.
Iran has faced attacks from ISIS and its affiliates over the past decade. The Mujahedin-e-Khalq, Iran’s exiled opposition group, is accused of being backed by Saudi Arabia. Still, it hasn’t been involved in terrorist acts in Iran recently, and Saudi-Iran relations have improved.
Some believe Israel may be behind recent attacks to provoke Iran into making a mistake, while others suggest the involvement of ISIS or Baluchi separatists. Past attacks blamed on Israel typically targeted individuals or facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program.
A senior White House official sees the recent blasts as a terrorist attack resembling ISIS’s past actions. However, the absence of a group claiming responsibility raises doubts about the assumption of a terrorist group’s involvement, according to Sanam Vakil from Chatham House.
How does this fit into the regional context?
In Kerman, there was an explosion during a time of increased tension in the area. Israel is currently in a three-month-long conflict with Hamas in Gaza, which started after an attack by Hamas on Israel in October.
This conflict has extended beyond Israel and Gaza, leading to incidents involving Iran-backed groups. In Lebanon, a senior Hamas leader died in a blast in Beirut. The U.S. suggested that Israel was responsible, but Israel has not confirmed or denied this. Both Hamas and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group in control of the area, blame Israel and promise retaliation.
In Syria, Israel was accused of assassinating an Iranian commander, and Iran vowed to retaliate. Israel has not commented on this accusation. Israel claims that Iran supports and arms Hamas. The Israeli Defense Minister mentioned being in a “multi-arena war,” facing attacks from seven different areas, including Iran.
In Iraq, a commander from the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Front was killed in an unidentified strike in East Baghdad. The U.S. confirmed targeting a member of an Iranian proxy group, stating the individual had “U.S. blood on his hands” and had been under observation before the strike.
What could be the anticipated response from Iran?
In Iran, people were already very upset about the killing of Mousavi, which Iran blamed on Israel. Now, the Kerman attack has made things even worse for the Iranian government. It shows that they can’t protect their top officials or prevent attacks in their own country. This is embarrassing for the government, and there may be more pressure from within the country to punish Israel, especially if officials believe Israel is responsible for these recent attacks.
A billboard in Tehran’s main square was put up on Thursday with the words “Strong answer, God willing.” This seems to be a call for the government to respond strongly to the Kerman attack.
Over the years, there have been reports that Iran tried to kill Israelis in Europe and Asia as revenge for what they believe are Israeli actions against them. However, these attempts have failed. Critics of the Iranian government on the right think these attempts are not enough to retaliate for the killing of top Iranian officials.
Before Mousavi was killed, Iranian officials were unsure about how to get revenge. Some thought it was best to be patient and avoid a direct conflict with the U.S. or Israel. The killing of Mousavi has added to the confusion and division among Iranian officials about how to respond.
Tehran is in a difficult position. They might blame terror groups to shift the blame away from themselves. This way, they can accuse Israel and the U.S. of causing trouble in the region but still blame terror groups to avoid taking direct action.
Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Stimson Center, mentioned on CNN that Iran has not been responding quickly to attacks against it. This raises concerns about the stability within the country. In 2022, there were significant protests in Iran, the most extensive since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. These protests were sparked by the death of a young woman at the hands of the country’s morality police and were brutally crushed.
In summary, the Kerman attack has once again shown that Iran is vulnerable and the government is failing to provide security. While they can enforce certain rules, like making women wear hijabs, they struggle to protect lives and prevent terrorism.
Source: CNN
